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Contrarian Investment Strategies - The Classic Edition, by David Dreman
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David Dreman's name is synonymous with the term "contrarian investing," and his contrarian strategies have been proven winners year after year. His techniques have spawned countless imitators, most of whom pay lip service to the buzzword "contrarian," but few can match his performance. His Kemper-Dreman High Return Fund has been the leader since its inception in 1988 -- the number one equity-income fund among all 208 ranked by Lipper Analytical Services, Inc. Dreman is also one of a handful of money managers whose clients have beaten the runaway market over the past five, ten, and fifteen years.
Now, as the longest bull market in the history of the stock market winds down, there is increasing volatility and a great deal of uncertainty. This is the climate that tests the mettle of the pros, the worries of the average investor, and the success of David Dreman's brilliant new strategies for the next millennium.
Contrarian Investment Strategies: The Next Generation shows investors how to outperform professional money managers and profit from potential Wall Street panics -- all in Dreman's trademark style, which The New York Times calls "witty and clear as a silver bell." Dreman reveals a proven, systematic, and safe way to beat the market by buying stocks of good companies when they are currently out of favor. At the heart of his book is a fundamental psychological insight: investors overreact. Dreman demonstrates how investors consistently overvalue the so-called "best" stocks and undervalue the so-called "worst" stocks, and how earnings and other surprises affect the best and worst stocks in opposite ways. Since surprises are a way of life in the market, Dreman shows you how to profit from these surprises with his ingenious new techniques, most of which have been developed in the nineties. You'll learn:
- Why contrarian stocks offer extra protection in bear markets, as well as delivering superior returns when the bull roars.
- Why a high dividend yield is just as important for the aggressive investor as it is for "widows and orphans."
- Why owning Treasury bills and government bonds -- the "safest investments" for centuries -- is like being fully margined at the top of the 1929 market.
- Why Initial Public Offerings are a guaranteed loser's game.
- Why you should avoid Nasdaq ("the market of the next hundred years") like the plague.
- Why crisis, panic, and even market downturns are the contrarian investor's best friend.
- Why the chances of hitting a home run using the Street's best research are worse than being the big winner in the New York State Lottery.
Based on cutting-edge research and irrefutable statistics, David Dreman's revolutionary techniques will benefit professionals and laymen alike.
- Sales Rank: #215169 in Books
- Published on: 1998-05-18
- Released on: 1998-05-18
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.25" h x 1.30" w x 6.12" l, 1.43 pounds
- Binding: Hardcover
- 464 pages
Amazon.com Review
All stock-market investors embrace the motto "Buy low, sell high." Few act accordingly, however, for to do so would require that we go against the crowd, buying stocks that are out of favor and selling Wall Street's darlings. Powerful psychological forces prevent us from pursuing a contrarian investment strategy, although it consistently beats the market, according to David Dreman, a seasoned money manager and long-time columnist for Forbes magazine. One of the Street's best-known and most articulate contrarians, Dreman has updated his 1982 investment classic, Contrarian Investment Strategies, using recent research on investor psychology. His revised book combines proven techniques for selecting undervalued stocks with fresh insights on how to defy, and thereby profit from, the popular fears or enthusiasms of the moment.
Dreman pays only cursory attention to a company's business fundamentals in deciding whether to invest in it. Instead he looks for stocks trading at below-market multiples of per-share earnings, cash flow, book value, or dividend yield. Historically, Dreman claims, stocks that are cheap by any of these measures have tended to outperform the market average, although this is disputed by those who believe the stock market is efficient and therefore impossible to beat except by accident. Dreman devotes many pages to debunking their research. He offers a new refinement of his low-price strategy, which involves picking the cheapest stocks within industries, to create a diversified, contrarian portfolio.
Contrarian Investment Strategies: The Next Generation is full of practical and provocative advice, but some of its most interesting passages delve into the abstruse findings of cognitive psychology. This research has proven that we are woefully inadequate as intuitive statisticians. Interpreting data to make predictions about the probability of future events, we consistently make the same mistakes. For example, we exaggerate the likelihood that current trends will continue, even when they are historically exceptional. (Logic dictates that trends are more likely to regress toward the mean.) This fallacy explains why most Wall Street insiders were gloomiest about stocks in 1981, after six years of falling prices, just before the beginning of the greatest bull market ever. Is today's widespread optimism among investors a reason for caution? Dreman thinks so.
It seems our brains are hard-wired to underperform the market. That's why few investors can keep to a contrarian approach. Dreman recommends buying stocks when prices fall, the worse the panic the better. But that requires overriding powerful instincts.
Besides reflecting Dreman's wide reading in finance, psychology, and history, his book also displays his sometimes windy and self-important writing style. At 464 pages, the book is not a quick read. But its intellectual depth and thoroughly tested advice make many other investment books look paltry and superficial by comparison. Serious, independent investors will find it rewarding. --Barry Mitzman
From Library Journal
Manager of the Kemper-Dreman High Return Fund and chair and CEO of Dreman Value Management, Dreman analyzes contrarian investment strategies for the 1990s and into the 21st century, defining contrarian investment as involving buying and selling securities by going against the crowd and prevailing investor opinions. He emphasizes the importance of investor psychology, which he terms "the necessary link required to activate the contrarian strategies we will now examine." Additionally, Dreman describes investor overreaction as a response to events in a predictable fashion: investors "consistently overvalue the prospects of `best' investments and undervalue those of the `worst.'" He presents and discusses 41 contrarian investment rules involving such factors as stock performance, political and financial crises, volatility, and analysts' forecasts. Especially interesting are the specific case studies involving the effect on the securities markets of major crises such as the 1987 stock market "crash" and the Gulf War. Highly recommended for business collections in both public and academic libraries.?Lucy T. Heckman, St. John's Univ. Lib., Jamaica,
Copyright 1998 Reed Business Information, Inc.
Review
Marshall Loeb editor, Columbia Journalism Review; Former Editor, Fortune magazine David Dreman has written one of those rare, original books on the market that appear every generation or so. Powerful, profound, and extremely well documented, it provides totally new strategies for investing in the 1990s and beyond.
Martin Edelston editor, Bottom Line/Personal Lots of people call themselves contrarians, but David Dreman is the real thing. His shrewd strategies put you far ahead of conventional wisdom. This new classic is easy and valuable reading for anyone interested in beating the market.
James W. Michaels Editor, Forbes magazine David Dreman shows you how to make psychology -- both yours and the market's -- work for you, not against you.
A. Michael Lipper Lipper Analytical Services, Inc. There are relatively few good money managers or good writers on investments. David Dreman is both. In Contrarian Investment Strategies: The Next Generation, Dreman's focus on the understanding of "risk" should free investors from the mathematical traps of so-called risk measurement. In plain language, Dreman explains that the real risk is in investments that underperform for your needs and expectations. This is a great book for all investors, laymen and professionals alike.
Sandra Ward Barron's Beating the S&P 500 consistently. A mutual-fund fantasy? A dream, perhaps. Well, in a way, yes: Dreman it is -- David Dreman, chairman of Dreman Value Advisors, and his Kemper-Dreman High Return fund delivering as advertised. Better still, the best is likely yet to come.
Most helpful customer reviews
3 of 3 people found the following review helpful.
Read it in 98 or 99 - after nearly 20 years of investing.........
By J. Burns
Of all the investment books I have on my shelves, I would say that this book has been more influential than any other when it comes to investing in stocks.
I have read it at least four times over the years and referenced back to it more than that. I will say that not all periods of time are best to be in the stock market. More recently precious metals have been better and that is where I have been instead of stocks. At some point it will be time to switch and be back in stocks and at that time I again will use what David Dreman promotes, buying undervalued out of favor stocks and holding them till they are more dearly valued. Has it worked for me? My 20 years of investing has allowed me to retire at 55 if that is any indication and I have already said that this book has been the most influential of any I have read, so yes, value investing has worked for me. I do not always invest in stocks, but when I do, they are value stocks based on what he teaches. The results have been favorable.
Investing is an art rather than a science. Dreman gives one the information needed to help perfect the art of value investing. It is not a paint by numbers book or something that will guarantee success, but good fundamental education and a way of looking at investing. Everyone likes to buy things when they are on sale......except in the stock market where they seem to prefer to pay top price. I like to buy stocks when they are on sale. That is what contrarian investing is all about.
There are periods of time when the stock market is not the best investment vehicle to be in. When it is the best place to be, the ideas in this book work, as long as a person has the mental discipline to allow them to work.
8 of 8 people found the following review helpful.
One of the few investments books that proves its arguments
By Andrew Chandler
I was bummed out before I read this book- had just read A Random Walk Down Wall Street and had become a believer in a)the efficient market hypothesis and b)the inability to beat the market over the long term.
Then comes this book. Chapter by chapter, Dreman dissects efficient market arguments that I saw as fact and showed that they were folly. Dreman states that the market is not efficient because investors are many times not rational. In fact, they are predictably irrational. And then Dreman gives data to prove this. He presents research to show that investing in a certain way allows you to beat the market.
And he gives more research and data. And more, and more. Some people will complain that this is boring and overwhelming, but he does so to prove the validity of his methods. I've read many investment books, and usually an author will give his guidelines for picking stocks, with return numbers taken at a certain point in time, and holding stocks for a certain period, and maybe a few other stipulations. And in the end, I never trusted the author enough to invest any real money in his strategy.
Not so with Dreman. The wealth of research convinced me that Dremans methods were not datamining and were not limited to certain market environments.
Its the most imporant investing book I have read. Dremans method is very similiar to value investing preached by a number of other famous investors. The difference is that Dreman proves to you through his research that value investing works. Everybody addicted to Mad Money and Jim Cramer needs to give this book a peek.
2 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
Useful for the long term investor
By Doctor topo
Dreman explains the typical biases of market crowds, supporting each explanation with statistical experiencies. I found this book very useful for someone wanting to beat the market in a "smooth" and long term way. The suggested technics are not applyable for anyone looking for quick big gains. He stuck to a strategy he found very effective. In fact, he was fired on 2009, March for his losses,at the bottom of the markets decline, when he was screaming buying in that moment was a great opportunity! The book may appear "too long" but is very scientific, and it's readable for those as me, that find interesting markets psychology. As I bought Kindle version I can state it's got some mistakes; but they are actually few, like "missing paragraphs" and don't devalue the work.
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